Dan Haren's Greatly Exaggerated Demise

Being too wimpy to watch any horror movies, I decided to do the next best thing and look up Dan Haren's advanced stats on Fangraphs. I expected a disaster, knowing that his ERA was over five, so I was completely shocked to see he actually has a 3.69 xFIP! xFIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, says what your ERA should be if you strip away the quality of the defense behind you, different ballpark dimensions, and plain old luck. Just like the eye test, all advanced statistics should be taken with a bit of skepticism, so I took a deeper look to try to understand why his xFIP was so much lower than his ERA. 

The first thing I noticed was that he has been very unlucky with his Left On Base Percentage. To understand LOB%, imagine an inning where the pitcher gives up a deep fly out/sac fly, two singles, and 2 K's in some order. If the inning is ordered single, single, sac fly, K K, the pitcher will give up a run. If the inning is ordered fly out, K, single, single, K, then no runs will score even though the pitcher did the same things. Dan Haren's sequencing has been biting him in the ass this year, and it's almost guaranteed that his sequencing will positively regress as he continues pitching. 

He has been unlucky with the percentage of fly balls that go over the fence. If the fence is 350 ft, a 340 ft fly ball could be a fly out while a 360 ft hit is a dinger, but there is no real difference in a pitch that gets hit 340 ft or 360 ft. 

He's also done a bad job selecting pitches. He has thrown both his fastball and his cutter about 40% of the time, but his fastball has actually been above league average in effectiveness while his cutter is getting absolutely rocked. If he can stop using the cutter as a main weapon and instead use it as a change of pace or out pitch he would see much better results. 

Lastly, he's been getting unlucky with this balls that are hit into play. There is no difference between a pitch that gets grounded to the 1st baseman for an out and a pitch that gets grounded into a hole between 1st and 2nd baseman for a hit, but they get opposite results. To put it simply, Haren's balls have not been finding the Nationals' gloves as often as they should. 

Look, I'm not going to try to sell you on the idea that Dan Haren will be a very good pitcher ever again, but it's important that we don't overreact to the results of one year. His ugly ERA this year has probably tanked his value on the free agent market, so I'd be very happy to see the Nationals bring Haren back on a cheap contract next year to be our fifth starter. 

Week One Picks

Adrian's Picks
New England v. Buffalo – Patriots

Cincinnati v. Chicago – Bengals

Miami v. Cleveland – Browns

Atlanta v. New Orleans – Falcons

Tampa Bay v. New York Jets – Buccaneers

Tennessee v. Pittsburgh – Steelers

Minnesota v. Detroit – Lions

Oakland v. Indianapolis – Colts

Seattle v. Carolina – Seahawks

Kansa City v. Jacksonville – Chiefs

Arizona v. St. Louis – Cardinals

Green Bay v. San Francisco – 49ers

New York Giants v. Dallas – Cowboys

Philadelphia v. Washington – Redskins

Houston v. San Diego – Texans

Week 1 Breakdown:  There are a lot of interesting matchups in Week 1 this season, but I’m going to briefly focus on a couple. The Miami v. Cleveland game is very interesting. In a very week AFC, this game squares off two teams that could very easily claim a wild card when the season’s all said and done. The Browns have recently been the joke of the NFL, but with a solid defense they could make waves this year. Another game to watch is the Atlanta v. New Orleans game. At home and with their leader, Sean Peyton, back, the Saints will obviously come out with a lot of emotion. But the Falcons are simply a better team and the Saints can’t play defense. This is Atlanta’s division now. The last interesting game is the Philadelphia v. Washington game. We will get to see two things we didn’t see in the preseason, the full Chip Kelly offense and RGIII. The Eagles will be improved offensively, but their defense is in year one of what is normally a three year process of switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The Skins win this one.

Michael's Picks

New England v. Buffalo – Patriots

Cincinnati v. Chicago – Bengals

Miami v. Cleveland – Cleveland

Atlanta v. New Orleans – Falcons

Tampa Bay v. New York Jets – Buccaneers

Tennessee v. Pittsburgh – Steelers

Minnesota v. Detroit – Lions

Oakland v. Indianapolis – Colts

Seattle v. Carolina – Seahawks

Kansa City v. Jacksonville – Chiefs

Arizona v. St. Louis – Rams

Green Bay v. San Francisco – 49ers

New York Giants v. Dallas – Cowboys

Philadelphia v. Washington – Redskins

Houston v. San Diego – Texans

Michael’s Week 1 Breakdown: If there is anyone in this league capable of slowing down explosive defensive end Cameron Wake, it would be Cleveland’s Joe Thomas, who may be the league’s most technically proficient tackle. Brandon Weeden has shown us some flashes this preseason, and I like the Browns’ chances of shutting down Tannehill’s passing game.

#7 overall pick Johnathan Cooper had a chance to add an elite presence to a Cardinals offensive line that sorely needed one, but now that he is our for the year I don’t see anyone that can block Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers. If the Cardinals hope to score this game, Rashard Mendenhall is going to have to turn back the clock and pound tough yards out, something James Laurinitis is more than capable of preventing.

There is not a single position group at which the Raiders have even a close to average collection of talent. I’m intrigued by what dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor can do with a back like Darren McFadden, but until I see proof that this offense is going to be better than everyone predicts it is impossible to not pick the Colts to win today.

Playoff Primer

	AFC	NFC
North	Bengals	Packers
East	Patriots	Redskins
South	Texans	Falcons
West	Broncos	49ers
Wildcard #1	Chiefs	Seahawks
Wildcard #2	Browns	Bears

Super Bowl Matchup: 49ers over Texans

Adrian’s Overview:

The AFC is super, super weak this year. The Ravens lost half their starting defense and the Steelers are old and on the decline. That’s why I’m picking the Bengals to win that division and the Browns to come out as a wild card winner. The Bengals have a superb defense and Andy Dalton has developed well. They have A.J. Green as well as other quality pass catchers. The Patriots lost a healthy majority of their receiving corp, but with the Jets being in turmoil, the Bills starting an undrafted rookie and the Dolphins just not being very talented, the Patriots have been handed a free division. Same goes with the Broncos, no real challengers there. But the Chiefs do have enough good players to win games and make the playoffs as a wild card team. Alex Smith is solid, Jamaal Charles is a game changer, and the defense is more than solid. The Texans have a really solid team. They have great pass catchers, led by Andre Johnson, and a great running game led by Arian Foster. Their defense is athletic and they make plays and rush the passer, led by J.J. Swat. I have the Colts missing the playoffs because they got really lucky last year. They had 7 game winning drives and won 9 total by 7 points or less. This is simply not sustainable and the Colts will regress.

The NFC is filled with landmines if you’re trying to navigate to the playoffs. Out of the North, I have the Packers winning it and the Bears claiming a wildcard spot. The Pack have probably one of the top 2 offenses this year with Denver. They will put up points and a lot of them. Their defense is opportunistic and will make teams pay for mistakes. The Bears will have a great defense again and I think their offense will be much improved, especially if Matt Forte stays healthy. Remember, they started off 7-1 last year. The West is another division filled with a lot of good teams. The 49ers will probably beat out the Seahawks by a game. They are both mirror images of each other. Amazing defense, power run game, and a quarterback that can bet you through the air and with the option. I give the edge to San Fran because I like Kaepernick over Wilson who may be as good as he’ll ever be, while Kaepernick has room to grow. The East and South will be dog fights because I only see one team coming out of both. The Redskins will come out of the East because of their offense. RGIII is back and healthy and this team put up a lot of points last year. They also tried to address their secondary through the draft and are getting a couple front 7 guys back healthy. The Falcons will have competition is every divisional game this year. I think they all end up beating on each other and Atlanta prevails because of their dynamic offense and non-divisional record.

There's No Room For Personality in Today's Sports

Every time I see a post-game interview about to start, I’m eager to change the channel, knowing that more than likely this is what I’ll hear: If the player’s team has lost he will say, “I played bad. We played bad as a team. I need to work harder and we’ve got to correct some things. We faced a quality opponent tonight, but that’s not an excuse. We’ve got to get better as a team.” If the player’s team won he’ll say, “It was a good team win today. My teammates played great. Obviously we had a few plays we’d like to get back, but I can’t complain. We’ve just got to keep working and continue to build on this win.” These dry, standard statements are what we as sports fans are forced to deal with every single day, no matter how much we know the players don’t mean them.

But, don’t think I’m blaming the players for this, I’m blaming the culture. Because if they aren't boring and have a little bit of personality, he makes headline news. Take the controversy surrounding Aaron Rodgers because of the recent things said by former Packers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Jennings started it off with several barbs at Rodgers; in one of which he said, “It's hard for someone to see that [you've got to hold yourself accountable] because all they've heard is I'm doing it the right way. I'm perfect. In actuality, we all have flaws.” Driver was later asked his opinion of Rodgers being that he had worked with him for so many years and had this to say, “We've always said that the quarterback is the one that needs to take the pressure off everyone else. If a guy runs the wrong route, it's easy for the quarterback to say, 'Hey, I told him to run that route' than for the guy to be like, 'Well, I ran the wrong route.' Sometimes you ask Aaron to take the pressure off the guys so we won't look bad, but he didn't want to do that. He felt like if you did something bad, you do it.” Now I know it may be hypocritical of me to bash these guys for speaking up because that’s what I want them to do, so let’s be clear I’m not bashing them for that. I’m bashing them for buying in to the notion that a quarterback has to have no personality and always say the “right” thing to the media. I’m bashing them because they think that the quarterback should take the fall for other players mistakes. This is all because of the culture that players aren’t allowed to say what they think. Driver and Jennings are evidence that they have bought in and believe that Rodgers should always say the “best for team” thing. I, on the other hand, love what Rodgers does. For one, I’m sure he doesn’t think he’s perfect. He knows he has practice and improve because otherwise he’d have a 100 QBR and 3 Super bowl trophies. But, for Jennings and Driver to say that Rodgers is a bad leader because he thinks people should own up to their own mistakes is ridiculous and actually disgusts me. What kind of lesson does it send to others that you should let your “leader” take the fall for you and be mad at him if he doesn’t? Rodgers is a real human being and someone who’s personality I wish we saw more in sports.

Here’s a fresh personality that just made his debut on Monday: Jameis Winston. Take the time and watch his press conference following his redshirt debut in which he went 25-27 for 356 yards and 5 total TDs. He is just a refreshing character to see. He looks like a kid in the candy store. He is truly excited and loves what he’s doing. He gives credit to his teammates but he genuinely means it and you can tell how much he loves those guys. At one point he is asked, “did you have any nerves, this is the last game of the week, it’s on Monday night?” Winston responds, “No nerves, more anxious. You should have seen our team, we were like ‘when are we gone play?’ Back home I called my little brother before the game and he was like when is J-Boo gonna get out there and play? I mean everyone was excited. I mean its Monday night football. I mean we’re in college and playing Monday night football in a pro stadium. I was so pumped for that.” 

You can just tell how much he loves the football and how honored he is to play, because after all this is a game. Sports are just games. We as a culture take them really serious but at the end of the day, the athletes aren’t robots. They’re humans just like me and you. They should be allowed to give their honest opinions and not be chastised for it by other teammates or by the media. I want to hear Mark Cuban complain about the refs and not get fined. I want to hear RGIII be honest and say that he wants to play and a fictitious controversy not be invented in our Nation’s capital. I even want Johnny Football to be able to trash talk without 50 year old men calling a 20 year old a child. You might not agree with him miming a signature against Rice, but you can’t debate his talent and skill. And if a Heisman trophy winner wants to trash talk, then I think he’s earned that right. I want Serena to show emotion and yell at the line judge. I want to throw his club in disgust. I want Yasiel Puig to hotdog and slide into home plate after a walk-off homerun. I want Lee Westwood to battle his twitter trollers. I want Allen Iverson to question why we’re talking about practice. Because this is sports. They are supposed to fun and the people that play them should be passionate and be allowed to show. They should never have to apologize for playing too hard.

Fantasy Football Hall of Fame 2012-2013

This weekend was Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement weekend for 7 well-respected former NFL stars: Cris Carter, Jonathan Ogden, Dave Robinson, Larry Allen, Bill Parcells, Curley Culp, and Warren Sapp. So to get in the spirit of football being back, I thought it only appropriate to make a Fantasy Football Hall of Fame class of 2012-2013. These players are being enshrined for unique and noteworthy achievements that they racked up during last year’s Fantasy Football season.

The first inductee is Adrian Peterson. It has been stated numerous times how amazing his season was last year. He tore his ACL near the end of the prior season and for a running back to rehab from that sort of injury and play Week 1 is remarkable in and of itself. But he did more; he came back like a beast. Before the season people were worrying about whether or not he was worthy of a first round pick coming off the injury. To prove his doubters wrong, all he did was put up 2,097 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 297 fantasy points. To put that in perspective, the next closest running back was Arian Foster who had a typically monster season of 248. That means Peterson put up 20% more points than the closest guy! Only 6 players scored more points than him and they were all QBs. Peterson is more than worthy to be in the Hall.

The next inductee is Alfred Morris. We’ve all heard his story. A 6^th round pick out of Florida Atlantic, Morris came into town as the 4^th string running back. But after injuries to Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, and Evan Royster, Morris stepped up and never gave back. Nobody knew who he was going into the season. His Average Draft Position (ADP) was 144.8. He ended up scoring the 5^th most fantasy points for a running back with 230. Morris was a great story in the 2012 season and helped me win my league. NO one will overlook him this season.

The next inductee is Doug Martin. Doug Martin had a great season. He blasted on to the fantasy scene as a rookie, 1,926 total yards, 12 total touchdowns, and 248 total fantasy points. He was the third ranked RB and as a rookie, that alone is a reason to be on this list. But he is on the list for one reason. Week 9. Oakland Raiders. 25 carries. 251 rushing yards. 4 rushing touchdowns. 51 fantasy points. This was one of the most amazing performances by a fantasy player ever. If you had him this week, you won. Unless your name is Michael and you’re a staffer for ChunSports, in which case you  lost that week, 100 to 102.

The next inductee is the Bears D/ST. The Bears defense but up massive point this season. They scored 215 points and led all fantasy defenses. The next highest scoring defense was the Seahawks at 172, the Bears total was nearly 25% than that. That is dominance. They scored 8 defensive touchdowns in a six week period and over that period put up 23, 23, 28, 15, 11, and 26 points. They slowed down towards the end of the season, but their amazing streak and dominance is worthy of the Hall.

The next inductees are Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. I have these guys in the Hall because of how much they grew. Dez Bryant entered the year as the 18^th ranked wide receiver. His first two years in the league he had put up 145 and 90 fantasy points failing to live up to the first round pick the Cowboys expected him to be. But last year he was 3^rd ranked wide receiver with 201 points and goes into the season as the 4^th ranked WR. Thomas entered the year as the 23^rd ranked wide receiver. Having been drafted the same year as Bryant, he put up 79 and 36 points. He shattered expectations with 191 points as the 5^th ranked wide receiver. He goes into the season as the 7^th ranked wide receiver. These guys deserve recognition for filling their shoes and becoming great third year players.

The last inductees are Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, and Phillip Rivers. These guys are in the Hall for what they didn’t do. MJD entered the year 8^th ranked running back with and ADP of 14.4. He started strong but caught the injury bug, missing the last 9 weeks of the season and ending with 56 points as the 50^th ranked running back. People thought that McFadden could stay healthy and produce, which is why he was ranked 9^th amongst running backs with an unusually high ADP of 6.4 McFadden only missed 4 weeks, but was ineffective all season, scoring only 101 points and ending the year as the 28^th ranked running back. Rivers entered the year as the 9^th ranked quarterback and left as the21st ranked QB. He only put up 200 points and was a bust all season. These three players have talent but their massive busts should be remembered for the 2012 season.

These players and moments made the 2012 season fun. This year will undoubtedly have its own stories and heroes. This season will produce a brand new set of Hall of Famers.