Friday, July 26, 2013

Handcuffing Your Running Backs

Handcuffing Your Running Backs

It’s week 8 of the NFL season, and your star running back cuts up field behind his left tackle. You cheer as he crosses the first down line, and as a defender hangs on to his right leg, he stumbles forward but stays upright, fighting for an extra yard. Right as your star starts falling over, a hulking linebacker rushes over and dives to make a tackle, driving his shoulder into the side of the running back's knee. You grimace, and tell your girlfriend watching the game with you (congrats on finding the perfect woman) to cover her eyes.

You walk to your computer, and calmly go check your fantasy team. Because you read this article, you already own your star running back’s backup, and rub your hands together with glee as you place your new starting running back into your lineup for next week.

This article will be a guide for who you should handcuff each starting running back with, along with an additional description of each situation as needed. I’ll also put a number on a scale from 1-10 that indicates how necessary it is to own that handcuff, with one meaning a handcuff is a waste of a roster spot and ten meaning it is acceptable to punch your friend if he drafts that handcuff after you draft the starter.

Arizona, Rashard Mendenhall: Ryan Williams (6)
Mendenhall is a punishing rusher, but basically lost last season to injury and will almost certainly miss time again. The only reason Ryan Williams wasn’t rated more important as a handcuff is because he is even more injury prone than Mendenhall. In fact, if you’re the kind of crazy that joins a 40 team fantasy league, I’d definitely recommend handcuffing Ryan Williams.

Atlanta, Steven Jackson: Jacquizz Rodgers (4)
If Jackson misses a game, look for Rodgers to get increased carries but share much of the load with Jason Snelling, who is a more traditional rusher than the quicker but diminutive Rodgers.

Baltimore, Ray Rice: Bernard Pierce (10)
Bernard Pierce gave us a glimpse of his potential against the Colts in the playoffs, carrying the rushing attack after a momentum killing Ray Rice fumble. Bernard Pierce could be in line for double digit carries a game even if Rice is healthy, and will be a star if Rice is ever forced to the sideline.

Buffalo, CJ Spiller: Fred Jackson (4)
CJ Spiller was the NFL’s most electrifying running back last year (non-Adrian Peterson division) and new coach Doug Marrone has said he views Spiller as the every down back. However, Fred Jackson is just a season removed from being an elite starter, and could be a very strong RB2 if Spiller goes down.

Carolina, Jonathan Stewart: DeAngelo Williams (10)
The whole Panthers running back situation is shaping up to be a massive headache again since their best goal line rushers are Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert, and neither Stewart nor Williams has run away with the starting job. Stewart and Williams will heavily share carries, making handcuffing a must.

Chicago, Matt Forte: Michael Bush (9)
Matt Forte will have a huge season as both on the ground and through the air, but he’s fragile and Bush handles the short yardage and goal line work even when Forte is healthy. Bush showed in Oakland that he can carry a rushing attack when McFadden went down.

Cincinatti, Benjarvus Green-Ellis: Giovanni Bernard (10)
The second round rookie Bernard will start the year as the 3rd down back, but his coach has said he has three down potential and the talent gulf between Bernard and Green-Ellis is so large that a changing of the guard is inevitable sooner rather than later.

Cleveland, Trent Richardson: Montario Hardesty (5)
Richardson showed he was tough enough to play through a painful rib injury his first year in the league, and Hardesty would just be a flex option if he had to take over the lead role in Norv Turner’s offense.

Dallas, DeMarco Murray: Joseph Randle (10)
Sun rises. Sun sets. DeMarco Murray gets hurt. Joseph Randle displayed an ability to break tough tackles at Oklahoma, and it will be exciting to see what he can do with a chance to be the lead back. 

Denver, Montee Ball: Ronnie Hillman (10)
Montee Ball showed at Wisconsin that he is capable of carrying a full workload, the question is whether coach Fox will give him that chance.

Detroit, Reggie Bush: Mikel Leshoure (2)
Mikel Leshoure could split a lead role with Joique Bell is Bush goes down. Leshoure is a bruising straight line rusher, but Bell’s elusiveness and receiving skills are more similar to what the Lions expect from Bush.

Green Bay, Eddie Lacy: Johnathan Franklin (10)
Remember the brief relief you felt after the Packers drafted Eddie Lacy in the second round and grabbed their workhorse of the future? The selection of the quicker Franklin the next day clouded the future of this potentially valuable backfield to the point where Franklin could win the starting job outright with a strong preseason.

Houston, Arian Foster: Ben Tate (9)
Combine Foster’s injury history with the Texans’ desire to rush the ball in all situations (and especially the red zone) and you get the feeling that we’re going to be seeing plenty of Tate this season.

Indianapolis, Ahmad Bradshaw: Vick Ballard (6)
Ahmad Bradshaw has had foot problems, but he’s a three-down back when healthy. Ballard was solid but not spectacular carrying the Colts rushing attack last year, and would be a potential low end RB2 if Bradshaw missed time.

Jacksonville, Maurice Jones-Drew: Justin Forsett (8)
MJD is a workhouse when he’s healthy and motivated, but is coming into camp with conditioning questions for the second year in a row. Justin Forsett is a career backup, so watch for “offensive weapon” Denard Robinson to become an intriguing player if MJD goes down.

Kansas City, Jamaal Charles: Knile Davis (2)
Jamaal Charles and Andy Reid have spent the offseason talking about their affection for their partnership, and Reid could turn to a back like Shaun Draughn with NFL experience instead of Davis if Charles gets injured

Miami, Lamar Miller: Daniel Thomas (4)
Lamar Miller has been given a chance to seize a three-down role after barely getting 50 carries his rookie year, and the plodding Thomas won’t be an exciting option even if Miller gets hurt.

Minnesota, Adrian Peterson: Toby Gerhart (2)
Yes, last year’s MVP is clearly the best back in the league, and if Peterson misses extended time your fantasy season (and the Vikings season) is probably ruined anyway. However, Gerhart looked capable finishing out the year after All-Day got hurt against the Redskins two seasons ago, and could become a RB2 if Peterson gets injured. Remember that no back lasts forever, and with the heavy workload Peterson has had for years in Minnesota it would be foolish to think he doesn’t require a handcuff.

New England, Stevan Ridley: Shane Vereen (10)
With the decimation of Brady’s receiving options, the football will be handed off more than ever before in the Brady era. Shane Vereen is a potential flex option even if Ridley is healthy because of his receiving skills; he’s low-end RB1 material if he ascends to the top of the depth chart for any reason.

New Orleans, Darren Sproles: Mark Ingram (6)
Lining up next to Drew Brees is a great situation for any running back, and both Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas have looked promising in limited roles. Promotion to a full-time role could make a fantasy star out of Ingram.

New York, David Wilson: Andre Brown (10)
If Wilson proves he can handle pass protection and secure the ball, he has the talent to run away with the job. Andre Brown can power through weak tackles and handle three-downs of work, making him very valuable if Brown gets hurt or put back in Coughlin’s doghouse.

New York Jets, Chris Ivory: Mike Goodson (7)
Ivory will get banged up because of his violent rushing style, but Goodson leads a collection of mediocre talent behind him on the depth chart. Bilal Powell showed flashes in a pathetic Jets offense towards the end of last season, meaning Goodson is unlikely to become a lead back if (correction, when) Ivory gets hurt.

Oakland, Darren McFadden: Marcel Reece (10)
See: Murray, DeMarco. Former college wide receiver Reece briefly became a fantasy star last season because of his rushing and receiving skills, and becomes more than just a flex option if he has to be the starting back.

Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy: Bryce Brown (10)
Brown has an unfair size-speed combination, and Chip Kelly’s offenses are profitable rushing based-warp speed combinations for his backs.

Pittsburgh, Le’Veon Bell: Jonathan Dwyer (2)
Jonathan Dwyer proved he was mediocre back last year, while Le’Veon Bell is a potential three-down back if he learns to use his size and strength to break more tackles. If Bell misses time, an ugly timeshare should ensue.

San Diego, Ryan Mathews: Danny Woodhead (7)
Ryan Mathews didn’t drink nearly enough milk as a child. Once Mathews goes down, Le’Ron McClain could become the starting back if the Chargers don’t believe the elusive Woodhead can handle a starting workload.

San Francisco, Frank Gore: Kendall Hunter (2)
Frank Gore is a workhorse, and should get the majority of carries when healthy even though he turned 30. If he goes down, it is almost certain to devolve into a committee between Hunter and LaMichael James.

Seattle, Marshawn Lynch: Robert Turbin (8)
Lynch has been an elite back the past several seasons, but people forget that he was considered injury prone earlier in his career. Turbin (and to a lesser extent rookie Christine Michael) are capable of handling the starting role if Lynch gets hurt.

St. Louis, Isiah Pead: Zac Stacy (4)
Daryl Richardson will get a fair amount of carries even when Pead is healthy, but he’s best suited going east-west and in a third-down role. Look for rookie Zac Stacy to get the majority of Pead’s carries and short yardage work if Pead goes down for an extended period of time.

Tampa Bay, Doug Martin: Mike James (1)
No player in the league needs to be handcuffed less than Martin, both because of the certainty that he’ll receive the full workload and the lack of a talented back on the depth chart behind him.

Tennessee, Chris Johnson: Shonn Greene (5)
Chris Johnson is many things (indecisive, poor between the tackles, selfish), but he is not injury prone. Shonn Greene is just one thing: plodding.

Washing, Alfred Morris: Roy Helu (2)
In terms of talent and fit with the offense, Morris fits so perfectly as the hammer lining up next to RGIII’s lightning that no other running back deserves carries. However, out of respect to coach Shanahan’s previous history of splitting carries into a committee, I’ve raised Helu’s rating from 1 to 2.


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