The Big League Chew: Which MLB team will improve the most in the second half?

Here at ChunSports we are always evolving. We love our debate series, but we’ve decided that it’s going to just be a feature between Michael and I. Think of us as Stephen A. and Skip Bayless expect younger, better looking, and smarter-er. No, but in all seriousness, enjoy our latest installment about which MLB team will improve the most in the second half. It’s a little long but we think it’s worth it. Leave a comment with who you think won. Fight it out. Get mad. Because we all love sports.

Adrian: When the offseason started last winter, there were two big prizes: the WAR machine in Zack Grienke and the slugger in Josh Hamilton. The Angels won the prize of Hamilton and as we all recall last year they landed the beast that is Albert Pujols as well as a stud pitcher in C.J. Wilson. Not to mention this guy named Mike Trout decided to enter the league and be a beast. Starting this season the Angles were supposed to blow away the competition, but as we stand here today they are two games under five hundred. Now given their run differential they should be a game or two above .500, but that is not the reason why I think that they will be much improved in the second half. The Angels already have a strong foundation both hitting and pitching wise and there are reasons why we can expect that to improve. I'll go into detail later, but first let's let Michael set the stage with his team that will be improved. 

Michael: The Angels had a nice offseason, but while they were busy spending the GDP of a small country on expensive free agents, the Toronto Blue Jays instead chose to improve by gladly taking expensive players the Marlins wanted to dump off, such as Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson. While the Blue Jays have gotten off to a slow start, they're almost certain to be the most improved team in the second half. Toronto hasn't been unlucky with run-differential, which is usually a harbinger of an improved second half, but they have been hit by a parade of injuries to crucial players such as Reyes and Dickey. Like the Angels, the Blue Jays have a well-balanced team that is strong both on the mound and in the field, but underlying metrics say the Rays can expect stronger performances in key areas than they've gotten so far. 

Adrian: As far as the Angels go, let's start at the plate. Don't forget that they are already batting well. They are 7th in runs, 5th in slugging, and 4th in batting average and on base percentage. Of their typical nine man lineup, they have four batting over .288, not to mention the others get on base. Callaspo has an OBP of .331, Ianetta of .365, and Trumbo of .31, but he is killing the ball with his 20 homers. They real pivot points of the offense are their too big free agent splashes, Pujols and Hamilton, who have been underperforming but show evidence that they can play better. Pujols is batting .252 but has a BABIP of .249. For those of you who don't know, the staff here at Chunsports are a bunch of number geeks. We love baseball analytics. BABIP is batting average on balls in play. If this number is really high or low, it can show that a person has been lucky or unlucky or maybe benefits from a stellar defense. Most BABIPs are between .270 and .300, when it gets away from this, you can tell that a batter is not performing true to form. Pujols will not have this bad luck all season and will raise his average. In addition, he currently has a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of .5. Over his career he was averaged a WAR of 7.2, which means that I expect him to break out his slump and be at about a 4 given a whole half of the season left. Hamilton is batting .229 but has a slugging percentage of .421 which means he’s getting a lot of extra base hits. His BABIP is a low .266 as well so we would expect that to average put soon as well. There is evidence of this too. In his last 15 games he is batting .319 with 9 runs, 4 home runs, and 13 RBI. Basically, Pujols and Hamilton should go back to crushing it and the stellar offense should become superb. 

Michael: While you cite BABIP as a reason to believe in Hamilton and Pujols, the Blue Jays’ own power bats have had the same bad luck. Sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have 0.264 and 0.242 BABIPs, respectively. Enough ink has been spilled across the internet about the decline of Pujols, but it’s fair to say that plenty of people have noticed Pujols’ decline isn’t just a one year trend—he has been steadily declining for at least three years now. The BABIP says he is better than he has shown so far, but he is suffering from a very painful case of plantar fasciitis and it’s foolish to think that 2006 Albert Pujols, or even 2009 Pujols is walking into that dugout anytime soon. There are several reasons to believe that Pujols and Hamilton’s BABIP are more reflective of their true talent than just bad luck. Pujols’ foot injury has completely sapped any speed he had, and the longer it takes him to reach first base, the more likely he is to get thrown out no matter where he hits the ball. And Hamilton, in addition to being slow, is getting weaker contact because he doesn’t wait for pitches to cross the sweet spot in the center of the plate. As long as he continues to swing at almost 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, pitchers will avoid giving him meatballs, leading to weaker contact and a reduced BABIP.

The reason I’m most optimistic for the Blue Jays’ chances to improve in the second half is the return of star shortstop Jose Reyes. He’s one of the league’s premier leadoff men, getting lots of contact, getting on base frequently, and using his speed to take extra bases and cross the plate often. In his place, backup shortstop Munenori Kawasaki has batted 0.213, hit one home run, and stolen 7 bases in 216 plate appearances. This season, in almost exactly half as few plate appearances, Reyes has hit 0.307, hit four home runs, and stolen an equal number of bases. Upgrading from someone who had a negative Wins Above Replacement (the most commonly used metric to summarize a player’s complete performance) with the Mariners last year to a star who averaged 5 WAR the last two seasons should be worth a several win improvement in the second half just by itself.

It’s also easy to see how a chance to rest their injuries will help the Toronto pitching staff. Unfortunately for his stats, RA Dickey is a tough guy. While suffering from back strains that would send lesser pitchers to the DL, he insists on taking the mound. His stats are obviously suffering from his injury, and if he can feel better coming back from the All-Star break, we should see a Dickey that will be more similar to the Cy Young winner last year than the man with a 4.69 ERA this year.

Adrian: R.A. Dickey and his back is no more likely to finish the season out healthy than Albert Pujols with his foot, so if you don't expect Pujols to make it back to form, then Dickey - a one year wonder - cannot be relied on either. Pujols has at least shown an ability to produce every year. He has trended a bit downward the last two years, but he finished last year with a WAR of 4 after a slow start, much like I expect him to do this year. Hamilton does have to work on his plate discipline, but he has always been a buy who swings at less than quality pitches, yet has put up big numbers. He will start racking up hits and helping this ball club. Jose Reyes his definitely a talent, but has not shown that he can be counted on from a health standpoint. He is a hamstring away from being on the DL for a while now. But, let's get to pitching. The Angles starters are quality enough for this team improve. C.J. Wilson has a 3.37 ERA, 14 quality starts in 19 games, and 9 wins - overall solid numbers. Jered Weaver has just come back as well. He has a 3.38 ERA for the season and seems to have gotten back to form with one or less earned runs in his last 3 starts. Vargas has been a quality pitcher when healthy and is expected back late July. He has a 3.65 ERA and has had a quality start in all 14 of his games. The end of their rotation has been worse with Blanton and Williams, but they have has bad luck. Blanton has .346 BABIP against him and both have low to mid 4 fielding independent ERAs, which means that if you expect them to pitch 6 innings, they would give up 3 or 4 runs which should be no problem with this offense.

The bullpen is really the make or break part of this team. Sean Burnett was an important off-season acquisition but has been hurt. When healthy he has posted a 0.93 ERA and will be back after the All-Star Break. Downs, another important bullpen piece, has a 1.43 ERA. Kohn has a 2.63 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. De la Rosa has a 3.24 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Even their lesser bullpen pieces, Jepsen and Richards, with ERAs of 4.15 and 4.87 respectively, have fielding independent ERAs of 3.39 and 3.54, so they have been a bit unlucky. This bullpen has some great pieces in place and with Burnett healthy and luck evening out, we can expect the Angels pitching woes to turn into a strength of their team.

Michael: I have a hard time seeing where your comments about Reyes being an injury risk are coming from—since his age 22 season in 2005, he has played at least 130 games in every season besides one. I would agree that he might be at increased risk of injury if his hamstring was still looking gimpy since he returned, but even by his high standards he has looked electric, hitting home runs at what would be a career high rate if it held up for a full season (although his power will almost certainly return closer to his career rates once his number of at bats increases).

You cited the bullpen as a reason to get excited about the Angels, but it’s always tricky to count on your bullpen to be a major strength unless your bullpen consists of Mariano Rivera, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel. For proof of this, look no further than this exact same Toronto team—while their bullpen was one of the five worst in the league by ERA last year, they have been much improved this year with largely the same group. The ERAs of their five relievers with the most innings pitched are 3.64, 1.99, 2.00, 1.74, and 2.83, and Esmil Rogers’s 3.64 ERA has been inflated because he was forced to start 8 games due to injuries to rotation starters.

I’ve already touched on Dickey, but the rest of the Blue Jays rotation holds hope for second-half improvement too. Josh Johnson, who is in his prime at 29 and the owner of a career 3.24 ERA, has been knocked around while he is on the mound this year to the tune of a 4.62 ERA and had a 15-day stint on the DL. However, his FIP is closer to his career numbers at 3.94, and pitching stats can be notoriously fickle in anything besides large samples. If he needed extra motivation, he is playing for a new contract after this year, and we’re going to see the Josh Johnson we know and love much more than the one who has struggled this year. Brandon Morrow is another rotation regular that has had similar struggles to Josh Johnson. He had a career ERA around 4 but broke out with a 2.96 ERA last season, and was expected to be a reliable innings eater that would give his team a chance to win every night. Instead, he has struggled with a 5.63 ERA, and spent time on the DL. He threw a 25-pitch minor league bullpen session several days ago, and looked healthy. When he comes back healthy after the All-Star break he should be a solid number three or four starter, and even though he is unlikely to match last year’s breakout numbers, his velocity has been in line with his career numbers and will provide a boost the Blue Jays desperately need.

One last area we can look for improvement in one of the hardest to measure, the effectiveness of their manager. John Gibbons is in his first year as a manager, and has had to manage strong personalities such as Brett Lawrie and Jose Bautista. As he gains experience as the year goes on, he can only become more effective.

Adrian: I didn't want to get into a back and forth about Reyes but I will say this - sprained ankle, strained hamstring, back problem, calf injury, torn right hamstring, hyperactive thyroid gland, and severe left ankle injury - these have been the reasons for Reyes numerous trips to the DL. While he has finished some seasons healthy it would be foolish not to think of his health as an issue. As far as the Angels bullpen not being a bullpen you'll see during the All-Star game this weekend, it shouldn't really matter that they don't have these big names. As I've already shared the have pitchers that are producing at a high level and pitchers that should drastically improve their numbers as the season goes on. Once this staff and bullpen is healthy, pitching will be an Angels strength. However, as you glossed over, the Blue Jays starting staff has struggled and shows no real signs of recovering. Dickey is a great story, but he is a one year wonder who has struggled this season and dealt with a lingering injury. Josh Johnson has followed up a bad year last year (8-14 with a 3.81 ERA) with an even worse year this year. Saying that he should be a 4.00 ERA guy instead of the 4.62 ERA guy he has been this year does not give me much confidence in him. Brandon Morrow is another one year wonder who has shown that he cannot be a reliable started for this staff. Overall, every pitcher on this team with at least 10 starts has at least a 4.50 ERA. Wow. Let that soak in. This team has no pitcher than they can count on to be an ace or dependable. The pitchers are 19th in ERA, 22nd in WHIP, 18th in BA. The Jays have only three guys with 100 ABs with over a .280 average, including the recent arrival Reyes! They are 17th in BA and OBP. And not to mention they are last in the AL East. They have a tough schedule ahead, not helped by the fact that every other team in their division has a winning record and will look to beat up on this team. In the end the Angels already have bats and those bats will improve. The already have pitching and are getting guys back healthy. They have under-performed and will surge next half. The Jays might was well, but no matter what charismatic John Gibbons may be, he won't be the one taking the mound.

Michael: You want evidence that Dickey will bounce back in the second half? At the start of the year, his back injury was limiting his knuckleball velocity to about 2 mph less than it was last year. However, in his last two starts his velocity has returned as he averaged around 76.9 mph, close to last year’s average velocity in the mid-70s. He says the pain in his back and neck has completely disappeared, and while he claims he is still ironing out some mechanical issues that he developed while trying to compensate for his injury earlier this season, he looks ready to return to peak form. Also, while the rotation has been struggling (and your stat about not a single rotation member having an ERA under 4.50 is definitely disconcerting), once guys like Dickey, Johnson, and Buehrle (4.89 ERA this year but a career ERA of 3.86) get their rhythm back, the staff should keep the games close enough for their star trio of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Reyes to win games with their bats. As their 11 game winning streak proved this season, the Blue Jays are capable of playing at an elite level, they just need to become more consistent. Both the Angels and Blue Jays should improve in the second half, but the Blue Jays seem positioned to improve the most and roar into the postseason from a crowded AL East division.