NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Ravens v. Texans

Chunwoo: Ravens

The Broncos pounded the Baltimore Ravens the last time they met in the regular season but this time around, I believe the Ravens emerge with a victory. The defense of the Ravens is finally healthy and with the motivation of Ray Lewis’s retirement, the Ravens defense should be able to pull it out. Key contributors such as Paul Kruger are playing well and the defense should be able to hold its own against Manning as it did with the Colts. The key to this game is the offense for the Ravens. Last time they played, the Ravens could not get a running game going against the Broncos. If Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce start running the ball well Broncos are in trouble.

Michael: Broncos

For me, this comes down to: who the heck is going to cover Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker? The Broncos have Cary Williams masquerading as a #1 corner while true lockdown corner Lardarius Webb is out, and while having a pair of very good safeties (Ed Reed still ballhawks with the best of them, and Bernard Pollard is no slouch) should help stop big plays, Peyton Manning will be able to put on a passing clinic against the Ravens. Denver running back Knowshon Moreno has been on a tear lately, and seems to have turned a corner in his previously disappointing career. The run/pass balance Denver has achieved is reflective of how well designed the team is as a whole, as they’re 9^th in offensive WPA while 1^st in defensive WPA. Champ Bailey has sadly lost a bit of speed, but his defensive instincts are among the best in the league and he should be able to clamp down on physical receiver Anquan Boldin, who was the leading man in last week’s victory over the Colts.

Adrian: Broncos
Ray Lewis’ last ride is making its last stop. Just a mere four weeks ago, the Broncos rolled in to Baltimore and rolled out with a decisive 17 point victory. Now the Broncos are at home, where they have only lost once, and are facing a defensive that ranks in the bottom half of the league. The spread is a whole 10 points. No one is giving the Ravens a chance, and you can count me in with them. The Broncos enter the game on an 11 game winning and Peyton Manning with the second highest scoring offense and a defense that gave up the fourth fewest points will soon make it 12.

Packers v. 49ers

Chunwoo: 49ers

The game played in the regular season was won by the 49ers and I expect the same. Although the quarterback for the 49ers is different this time around, I expect him to do as well. Kapernick brings a different dimension that Alex Smith never had and the Packers defense isn’t considered top notch. Kapernick shredded a better team and defense of the New England Patriots and I expect the same out of the Packers defense. Also the 49ers should be getting back star defensive lineman Justin Smith back for the matchup and if I had to pick a defense to go up against Aaron Rodgers, I’d pick this one.

Michael: Packers

Where’s Frank Gore? After averaging over 5.4 yards per carry through 8 weeks, he’s averaged less than 3.8 since then. Whether it’s a slump or a sign of a once potent rusher wearing down, I think the Niners’ rushing attack isn’t the weapon people consider it to be. With Woodson and Matthews rounding back into top shape after missing extended time with injuries, the Packers defense is improving. One of the 49er’s dirty secrets is that their elite defense is vulnerable through the air because the corners are very inconsistent, and now that Rodgers has his entire arsenal of weapons healthy, I see the Niners having to score efficiently to keep up and don’t trust the inconsistent Kaepernick to do that.

Adrian: 49ers
I was going to pick the Packers in this game, but then I started looking at the stats. While Aaron Rodgers is fifth in QBR with an amazing 72.5, two spots ahead of him is actually Colin Kaepernick with a QBR of 76.8. I then thought well this doesn’t mean anything, so I searched around and found out that the Packers have a 10-1 record when forcing turnovers and a 1-4 record when they don’t. Kaepernick has only thrown two interceptions this season so he has the edge there, but AHA, Kaepernick has fumbled nine times in his short stay at quarterback. Case closed. Not really though. Several of the fumbles came on bad snaps and what’s more is the Green Bay ranked 31^st in the NFL for forced fumbles only forcing 18 all season.  So if Kaepernick continues to keep the INTs away, the Niners have a real shot at winning. And finally, if any team can knock off the pack it’s the 49ers. Rodgers is deadly against the blitz, but San Francisco blitzed the least of any team. My gut says the Pack, but my head says the 49ers. San Francisco get ready to celebrate.

Seahawks v. Falcons

Chunwoo:  Seahawks

The running in this game is going to be insane. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses against the run and they’ll be facing the third leading rusher in Lynch and a mobile quarterback in Wilson. The Falcons do have a potent air attack but they will be facing the duo of Sherman and Browner who will do a good job of limiting Jones and White’s damage to the game. The Seahawks with a great running game and defense will prevail against a too one dimensional team in the Falcons and Matt Ryan and co. will be 0-4 in playoff games after this one.

Michael: Falcons

I’m not someone who will spend a long time extolling ideas like pressure and momentum, but holy cow does Matt Ryan have a lot of pressure on him this game. Fortunately for him, I think this is the game he breaks through and gets his first playoff victory. The Seahawks are a wall against the run, but guess what—the Falcons can’t run anyway! One of the most underrated units in the NFL is the Falcons defense, which ranks in the top ten in WPA against the pass and against the run. They play with discipline, meaning the Seahawks’ bag of read-option and quarterback rushes they’ve been using lately won’t be as effective as they were last week against the Redskins. In a surprisingly low scoring game, it’s only going to take one long bomb to Julio Jones to make a difference.

Adrian: Seahawks

Atlanta is the most underappreciated number one seed in history. They’ve made the playoffs now four of the last five years, and twice now they have had the number one seed and a 13-3 and three record. And I think that they will once again fall to a wild card team. The Seahawks are the 3^rd ranked rushing team in the league and are facing the 21^st best rushing defense. Atlanta’s big strength is their 6^th ranked passing attack, but they are going against the 6^th ranked passing defense. I think that Seattle will be able to keep Atlanta’s big play offense contained. I also think that Wilson and Lynch will run the ball down the ATL’s throat all game. Seattle wins this one and Atlanta once again is labeled as a playoff dud.

Texans v. Patriots

Chunwoo: Texans

This game wasn’t close in the regular season but expect a great matchup in this one. The Texans squeaked by against the Bengals and while their play has been erratic leading up to the playoffs, I expect them to get back in to form. The key to this one is to get Arian Foster going on the ground. In the first matchup he was very limited and the Texans resorted to just throwing the ball. The strength of this team is in its run game and I expect the Texans to run the ball and utilize the play action for some big throws to Andre Johnson. While the other side has quarterback Tom Brady, I expect JJ Watt and co to bring havoc and limit Brady’s impact.  

Michael: Texans

Yes, I know the Patriots beat the Texans 42-41 in Week 14, but I think there are several reasons the score won’t be nearly as lopsided this time. First, it was one of only 2 games all year where JJ Watt didn’t register a sack or a pass deflection, meaning he wasn’t as disruptive in the passing game as he usually is. I don’t think it’s likely that happens again, and an improved showing from the defense should stop Brady from having another signature game (296 yards, 4 touchdowns last time they met). Second, Arian Foster had only 46 rushing yards on 15 carries last time. He’s become a different monster in the playoffs—in an admittedly small sample size, he has the highest yards per game average in the postseason in NFL history. If the Texans don’t turn the ball over and bludgeon the Patriots with Foster, they can definitely pull the upset.

Adrian: Texans

The Texans got thrashed in their last meeting with the Pats by 28 in an embarrassing showing. That being said, I think they win this game. The Patriots are not the playoff juggernauts that we think they are. They have been bounced at home from the playoffs two of the last three years. And really, they should have been 3 for 3 if Evans makes that catch or Cundiff makes that kick. Also, teams that beat a team by 28 in the regular season are just 11-11 against those teams when meeting in the playoffs in the same season. Also to go away from the stats a little bit, the Texans looked like a completely different team last week. Their defense played extremely well and didn’t give up a single touchdown. Their offense staggered in the red zone, but overall Foster looked great and Schaub looked goods sans that one awful decision resulting in a Pick-6. I think that the defensive line led by J.J. Watt comes out fired up and forces Brady out the pocket. If the corners can make some plays, I see the Texans coming away with a surprising win.