1. Chris Paul
Chris Paul is the consensus number one free agent
this summer. We all know how good he is; he’s been to five All-Star games, been
a part of two gold medal Olympic teams, and averages nearly 19 points, 10
rebounds, 4.5, and 2.5 steals, and 47% shooting for his career. The numbers
speak for themselves, but they fail to highlight his defensive energy and
prowess. It was almost a foregone conclusion that Chris Paul would return to the
Clippers, and after the acquisition of Doc Rivers, that seems certain
now. Clippers fans will have Chris Paul for years to come.
2. Dwight Howard
We think Howard will head to Houston. The best big man to hit the market since Shaq, we can see a similar story here with Dwight. He will not be returning to L.A and we can see him teaming up with James Harden in Houston, who have been long time admirers. Howard is a two play player. The former Defensive Player of the Year averages over 2 blocks a game over his career and scores more than 18 points a game with over 12 rebounds a game. A growing injury history should be noted by all interested suitors, but he is easily one of the best players to hit the market in years.
3. Josh Smith
He is the best of the second tier free agents behind superstars D12 and CP3. He is versatile small forward that can occasionally shoot the 3 ball and is defensively and offensively talented. Defensively he is a monster, able to block shots and rack up steals. He owns good post moves and a nice jumper which teams covet. One of the rumored teams is Detroit and we can see a nice fit there with Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond along with first round pick Caldwell-Pope.
4. Andre Iguodala
Iggy is one of the most complete guys you’ll see
in this league. He plays tough, physical defense and showed that as a part of
the 2012 Olympic Men’s basketball team. To go along with consistently ferocious defense, Iguodala has added 15 points, 5 assists, 6 rebounds, 1.7
steals, and a cool 46% shooting for his career. He is efficient and is able to get his points
without dominating the ball and taking a boat load of shots. Iguodala was a second-tier star back in his days with the 76ers, and last year was traded to the
Nuggets in hopes that he could be the man on a talented team with no true
superstar. In the end that didn’t happen, but he is still one of the most important parts of that team, along with Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. After letting George
Karl get away, we doubt the Nuggets would be foolish enough to let Iggy go to.
Look for him to rejoin the Mile-High track team.
5. Brandon Jennings
Say what you what about Brandon Jennings: ball
stopper, ball hog, defensive liability, but he’s young and he can score the
basketball. NBA coaches are getting smarter every day. Defensive schemes are improving, and as the league is changing, it is getting harder to score. Brandon Jennings has a
unique ability to put the ball though the rim and that is simply what a team
must do to win. Again, he’s young. His defense can improve. He average 1.5
steals to go along with 17 points and 6 assists. If he uses that high energy
for good, there’s no doubt he can potentially become a league leader in steals. We think he
stays in Milwaukee. He’s a restricted free agent and the Bucks have plenty of
cap room. They have decisions to make on Jennings and Ellis, but we believe
that they would match any offer that Jennings would receive and he stays a Buck,
whether he likes it or not.
6. Paul Millsap
The NBA is going smaller, meaning versatility is increasingly valued. Millsap is a good player, shooting 49% from the field while splitting time between both forward positions. He also owns a nice mid range jumper and is talented offensively. Although he is good defensively, he is a bit undersized guarding larger big men. If Utah has to choose between their two big men to resign, Millsap would be their choice because of his versatility, which should allow young talents Favors and Kanter to be on the floor along with Millsap.
7. Al Jefferson
Al Jefferson is a great offensive center, but lacks some skills defensively. Offensively he is big, a true center, and can command the point, the post, and the double team. However, he struggles staying with more athletic centers and defending the pick-and-roll. Last year, he averaged 17.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1 blocks, and 49.4% shooting while taking a few less shots than in years past. For years the Jazz have had him and Millsap as stars, but they will likely only be able to sign one. Millsap is not as talented offensively, but his defense is why we think the Jazz will ultimately sign him and let Jefferson walk. At 28, many teams will be intrigued by Jefferson, but players like Howard, Bynum, and Josh Smith will have to find homes first. He could go to a number of teams, but in the end, we think he goes to the Charlotte Bobcats. This may seem odd, but the Bobcats have a lot of cap room and need a true center to play alongside recently drafted power forward Cody Zeller.
8. Tyreke Evans
Tyreke Evans is immensely talented, and his versatility has enabled the Kings to play him at three positions during his brief career with the kings. He is a do-it-all guard, able to fill up the stat sheet on any given night with points, assists, rebounds, steals. However, as skilled as he is, he still lacks a perimeter shot and turns the ball over too much. A former Rookie of the Year award winner, Evans should return to a young Sacramento locker room, unless he finds a bigger suitor willing to give him a max contract.
9. David West
At this point, teams know exactly what they are getting with David West. He provides strong defense and rebounding. He can score with his back to the basket and from the mid range. He’s also a “first to enter the gym, last to leave” type of worker, who makes all of his teammates better. David West has much more value to a competitive team looking for one last piece, and with young talent that would benefit from playing with a consummate leader and professional like West. The Pacers perfectly fit that criteria, and I believe David West will resign with Indiana.
10. Andrew Bynum
Bynum was a headache for our staff as he has been
for the league. Some of us wanted to put him higher, because when he plays he is
the second best center in the league. When he wants to, he can play at his maximum talent level and put up the kind of numbers he did in his final year with the
Lakers: 18.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 56% shooting from the
field. However, he can also be a headache. He didn't play at all last season
and many of his 76er teammates have been quoted as saying they, if not hate, are tired of him. We all
remember the pain he is to coach, and the pain of watching him pull up for a
three point shot. Not to mention he has only been healthy enough to play in 60%
of the games while he has been in the league. All that being said, because of
his talent he’s going to garner a lot of interest money somewhere. With Dwight going to Houston, we see Bynum taking his talents
to the Dallas Mavericks who have cleared cap room and are in need of a young
star.
11. Nikola Peckovic
Quality big men are hard to find, and the Timberwolves have a good one in Pekovic. He is a threat to put up 20 points and 10 rebounds any night. While he is a gifted offensive rebounder and scorer, we would like to see him be a better defender for his size. He is a restricted free agent and should return to the Timberwolves to join Love in the front court.
12. Monta Ellis
Forced to be the top
scoring option for an offensively-challenged Milwaukee team, Monta Ellis was
the inefficient player his detractors always feared he would be. He didn’t let
the fact that he was a mediocre shooter (28.7% from behind the arc) stop him
from hoisting four attempts from the 3-point line a game. In addition, he
didn’t draw a high volume of free throws by driving to the rim, attempting just
4.6 a game. Add his offensive
inefficiency to his gambling defense, and he’s a player teams will have to look
at with caution. He is still talented, and would undoubtedly be more efficient
with better talent around him, but at this point would be ideally acting as a source
of instant offense as a 6th man. Portland would be the best fit for
him and will probably sign him, as it had one of the league’s worst benches
last year and could use another scoring option to take the burden off of
LaMarcus Aldridge and rookie sensation Damian Lillard.
13. Jeff Teague
Jeff Teague is a guy you probably didn’t expect to
see on this list. He is a sneakily underrated player who most people don’t get
to see, even though he is a really solid point guard. Last year he averaged 14.6
points, 7.2 assists, 1.5 steals, and shot 45% from the field. He also played
solid defense, especially for his size. The Hawks did make the playoffs last year and some of that
credit has to go to Teague. He is a restricted free agent and with Josh Smith likely
leaving and the Hawks most likely striking out on Howard and Paul, they’ll
resign Teague and look to build for the future.
14. Jarrett Jack
Jarrett Jack finally showed us what he can do this year when he is given a clear role and talent surrounding him. He’s quietly one of the NBA’s most effective mid range shooters, and even though there are now mountains of statistical evidence pointing to the inefficiency of mid range jump shots, a player that specializes in that area can provide a unique element to an offense. He’s also a solid, if not very good defender at both guard positions. Jack also was very effective in the Warriors crunch time lineups that featured Jack at point guard, and had Stephen Curry wreaking havoc with off-ball cuts. His almost certainly priced himself out of Golden State with his play this season, so he’s most likely to end up in Milwaukee, where his ability to score both on and off the ball would improve some low-scoring lineups and possibly bring the Bucks back to the playoffs next year.
15. O.J. Mayo
Mayo had a small breakout this year, proving himself an elite shooter by hitting 40% from 3-point range this year. Despite his offensive skills, he found himself on the edge of Rick Carlisle’s rotation this season because of his shaky defense and inconsistent effort. A team that signs Mayo will be hoping that his offensive improvements this season are here to stay, while his defensive talent and effort will improve as he matures. He will probably end up signing with the Minnesota Timberwolves, where he’ll have a steady stream of open shots produced by Ricky Rubio’s brilliant passing, and the team’s desperate hunger to finally make the playoffs should keep his defensive intensity higher than it’s ever been.
16. Andrei Kirilenko
There’s something to be said for a player with no holes in their game, even if they can’t do one thing amazingly well. He’s known as a solid defender, and while he’s fallen far from his All-Defensive First Team high in 2006, he still averaged a block and a steal per game this season while defending both forward positions. He is also an effective off-ball cutter, and can hit the occasional three. We think he’ll be a great fit on the Rockets, where he could slot in as a small-ball power forward, while providing a defensive edge for a team that sorely needs it.
17. J.R. Smith
J.R. Smith has always been an enigma, and while he showed us glimpses of the player we imagined he could be early this season, by the end he was still the same player he has always been. He was an effective 6th man for the Knicks this year while providing instant offense off the bench, and displayed improved ability and focus with both his passing and defense, but he slowed down in the second half of the season and reverted to his old ways in the playoffs, playing inconsistent defense and clogging the Knicks offense with ball-stopping, ineffective isolation plays. Based on his career norms, I think the JR Smith we saw in the playoffs is more likely to show up again than the creative team player we saw at the start of the year. Smith signing a deal to stay with the Knicks makes sense for both parties, as coach Mike Woodson runs an isolation heavy system that could use Smith’s scoring (and little else) off the bench.
18. Jose Calderon
He has never played on any great teams, but Jose Calderon has always been a sneakily good player. In fact, even though Stephen Curry, Danny Green, and Carmelo Anthony get much more (well deserved) press for their shooting prowess, it was actually Jose Calderon who led the NBA in 3-point percentage this season. At 31, he certainly won’t turn into Chris Paul or Derrick Rose and is a mediocre defender, but he can still provide smart passing, ball handling, and shooting for the right offense. The Dallas Mavericks would be a great fit for him, and if Mark Cuban can’t sign Chris Paul, I believe he would sign Calderon to give Dirk one last chance at a run.
19. Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin is a really underrated player. He was
the man in Houston for a while, but most people probably know him as what the
Thunder got back for James Harden. Obviously the Thunder regret trading Harden,
but that shouldn't be considered a statement on Martin. He is an efficient scorer that for his career has average 17.7 points and 44% shooting. Playing alongside two superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, last year he had a career high three point percentage at 42.6%. Martin could
certainly go find a home somewhere else and get more money than OKC will offer
him. But as we’ve seen the culture in the league shift in recent years, it has
become less about money for guys who are not stars on their own, and more about
finding a good team where they can contribute and have a legitimate chance to
win a championship. The Thunder are such a team and with a healthy Westbrook,
Martin could give them enough to get back to the Finals and contend for a ring.
20. Manu Ginobili
A great sixth man off the bench, we can't see Manu going anywhere but resigning with the Spurs. At his age, he is a limited contributor off the bench but still is an ample source of points, perimeter shooting, and play making in limited minutes. Should return to the Western Conference Champs on a team friendly contract.
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